Tag: IPC

Kenya’s Arid Lands Face Persistent Hunger Crisis Amid Mixed Projections for Late 2026

June 14, 2026     Kenya continues to face severe hunger and malnutrition in its arid and semi‑arid lands (ASAL), where drought, high food prices, and weakened pastoralist livelihoods have pushed millions into crisis. According to the U.S. Famine Early Warning System (FEWS NET), 2.5–2.99 million people currently need food assistance, with needs possibly declining to 1.5–1.99 million by December 2026 if weather conditions improve.

However, more recent field data from Action Against Hunger (ACF) and partners show a sharper picture:3.7 million people are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse, including 400,000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).  This represents a dramatic increase (a 52% jump) compared to early 2025.).

Where the Crisis Is Most Severe

Northern and northeastern counties remain the hardest hit. Nutrition assessments in early 2026 classified:

  • »  Mandera, Turkana South/East, and parts of Marsabit as Extremely Critical (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5)
  • »  Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, and Samburu as Critical (Phase 4)

These counties account for about 62% of Kenya’s total malnutrition burden.

Recent data from UNICEF, the Ministry of Health, and the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) estimate:

  • »  810,871 children under five need treatment for wasting (up from 760,488 in 2025)
  • »  116,800 pregnant and breastfeeding women also require treatment

Malnutrition Levels Remain Alarmingly High

SMART surveys and community screenings show persistently high wasting rates:

  • »  Wajir: 14.95% GAM (2023)
  • »  Baringo/Tiaty: 21% GAM
  • »  Turkana (some areas): ~33% GAM in community screenings
  • »  Turkana (2024 SMART): GAM declined from 26.4% to 21.8%—still above the 15% emergency threshold

In several northern counties—Mandera, Turkana South/East, and North Horr—analyses in late 2025 and early 2026 indicated Extremely Critical levels, meaning wasting rates of 30% or more. As your text states, “Northern areas such as Mandera, Turkana South/East, and North Horr reportedly reached Phase 5 ‘Extremely Critical’… corresponding to a rate of wasting malnutrition of 30% or more.”

A major warning sign is the collapse in mass screening coverage, which fell from 75% of hotspots in 2023 to under 15% by August 2025 due to funding shortages. This means many children with acute malnutrition are simply not being identified.

Drivers of the Crisis

The hunger emergency is fueled by overlapping shocks:

  • »  Erratic rainfall and recurring drought
  • »  High food prices
  • »  Poor livestock‑to‑cereal terms of trade
  • »» Livestock deaths and reduced milk production
  • »  Insecurity along the Kenya–Somalia border and in parts of Turkana

These factors have eroded pastoralist livelihoods and reduced household access to food.

Refugee Camps Under Severe Strain

Kenya hosts roughly 720,000 refugees in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei. Food rations have been cut to 28% of standard levels, worsening malnutrition among Somali and South Sudanese refugees. Funding gaps have also caused stockouts of ready‑to‑use supplementary foods (RUSF) and therapeutic foods in several hotspot counties.

Mixed Outlook for Late 2026

FEWS NET projects that food insecurity may ease by December 2026 if rainfall and harvests improve. But high prices and the upcoming lean season mean many households will remain in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse without continued support. National‑level improvements risk masking localized Phase 4–5 emergencies in remote ASAL counties and refugee settlements.

Humanitarian Response

Several NGOs continue to deliver life‑saving assistance:

  • »  Action Against Hunger (ACF) operates across Samburu, Baringo, West Pokot, Isiolo, Tana River, Kwale, Mandera, and the refugee camps, often using UNICEF and WFP supply chains for last‑mile delivery.
  •   International Rescue Committee (IRC) leads nutrition programs in Kakuma.
  • »  Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) supports health and nutrition services in Dadaab.
  • »  World Vision, Humanity & Inclusion, Cordaid, and Kenya Red Cross work with county governments on community outreach, CMAM programs, and cash support.

These organizations coordinate through the Kenya Nutrition Cluster to address both immediate treatment needs and the underlying drivers of hunger.

In Memoriam: Nick Haan of the Integrated Phase Classification System

May 26, 2026      Nicholas Haan, one of the innovative leaders in food security and humanitarian action passed away on December 2, 2025.  He dedicated his life to combating global hunger and strengthening food security systems in crisis zones.

He was a co-founder of the international humanitarian NGO, Field Ready, which publishes its memory of him here.    In it, co-founder Eric James says “We bonded over our passion for improving the hardest places and our frustration with things not working better.”

Raised in California, he earned his Bachelor of Science in Genetics from U.C. Berkeley, and went on to earn a Ph.D. in Geography, a Master’s in Development Economics/International Development, and a Master’s in GIS & Remote Sensing, all from Clark University.

His deep international perspective began as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Kenya, where he taught science in a remote village and became fluent in Swahili.  He made history alongside his kayaking partner as the first person to paddle the entire lengths of both Lake Victoria (a 500 km expedition) and Lake Turkana.

Over more than three decades, Nick specialized in food security, developing groundbreaking approaches that combined data analytics, geographic information systems, and supply-chain resilience to prevent famine. He is celebrated globally as the creator of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) System. What began as a localized data solution to map crises in Somalia is now the undisputed international standard led by the FAO, guiding billions of dollars in emergency funding across more than 30 countries

Later in his career, he was a faculty Fellow at Singularity University in Silicon Valley and previously the Vice President and Faculty Chair of Impact.

He authored influential papers and two books on adaptive food systems in fragile states. His innovative “anticipatory aid” model, delivering support before crises peak, is now considered a standard in the field.  See: this publication about information systems for food resilience.

He is one of the creators of the international standard for classifying the severity of food insecurity, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) System which started in Somalia, and is led by FAO.  He was the lead technical advisor to the UN’s Joint Interagency Analysis Framework (JIAF), which provides essential information to allocate over $50 Billion per year in humanitarian aid. Nicholas has been one of the 5 members of the global Famine Review Committee, which makes the independent determination as to whether a place is officially classified as being in ‘Famine’.  A year ago, Nick wrote about the IPC on Linked-in:

“The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is celebrating its 20th anniversary of informing decisions to end hunger. Thank you to the countless people who contributed to the IPC’s technical development, believed in it, and supported it–especially in the very early days when it was just “a crazy idea”. Here are just a few of those idea-stage contributors from 20 years ago: Cindy Holleman, Thomas Gabrielle, Noreen Prendiville, Yusuf Mohamed, Ali Duale, Mark Smulders, Wolfgang Herbinger, Mohamed Aw-Dahir, Sidow Addouand, and Luca Alinovi. Thank you to all the thousands of IPC practitioners around the world, all the IPC Global Partner Agencies, and the IPC technical development experts who continue to evolve the IPC. Ending hunger requires a collective effort. It’s doable.”

A video of his explaining the IPC system is available at:  https://youtu.be/BKELLoj_41g

He is survived by his wife Mariam, and siblings Mary Catherine and Annie. Beyond his professional achievements, Nick was known for his deep humility, dry wit, and a boundless spirit of adventure.

See:  https://www.fieldready.org/post/nick-haan-in-memoriam

and an obituary at Devex:

Hunger in Haiti

April 28, 2026:   Over the last six years, the food crisis in Haiti has grown steadily worse.  In 2019–2020, around 3.7 million Haitians were in food insecurity (IPC) Phase 3 or above.  By 2022–2023, that was approaching 4.7 million, nearly half the population. The most recent UN Integrated Phase Classification system analysis shows 5.7 million people (more than half the population) facing high levels of acute food insecurity, with 1.9 million in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

What distinguishes Haiti from other countries is the degree to which hunger is caused by gangs.  Historically, gang violence in Haiti was largely concentrated in specific slums of Port-au-Prince. While devastating for those communities, the national food supply chain, which relies heavily on imports through the capital’s port, remained somewhat functional.  Between October 2024 and June 2025, gang violence expanded westward into the Artibonite and Centre Departments, where 92,000 and 147,000 people were displaced respectively. By early 2025, the violence had also expanded into previously untouched areas of the country, and gangs began expanding north, south and east toward the Dominican Republic border, with the apparent goal of controlling key roads used for illegal weapons trafficking.

Gangs directly affect Haiti’s food economy.   Haiti imports over 70% of its rice and wheat but gangs now control key maritime and overland routes , strangling the entire country’s supply chain.  The Port of Port-au-Prince is blocked, forcing rerouting to Cap-Haïtien, raising costs.

Agricultural output in the Artibonite is down by at least 48%, according to the technical coordinator at the Artibonite Valley Development Organization. Gangs have taken over irrigation canals that feed the valley, leaving fields barren. Agriculture has stopped entirely in areas like Petite Rivière, Verrettes, and Pont-Sondé, where fields lie fallow and are overrun by weeds.   Gangs control irrigation systems (e.g., in Liancourt, Verrettes), forcing farmers to pay “taxes” for water or share their harvest.  Major markets (e.g., Croix-des-Bossales) are >80% non-functional.

UN World Food Program analysis using European Space Agency satellite imagery found up to 3,000 hectares of Artibonite farmland abandoned in 2023 compared to 2018, and hunger in these areas jumped from 40% to 57% in a single year.

According to ACLED, instances of sociopolitical violence almost doubled in three years , from 455 events in 2020 to 874 in 2023. The number of violent events in January 2024 was more than 70% higher than January 2023, and more than 60% above the five-year average.  As a result, over 1.4 million people are displaced (double the number from just a year ago), overwhelming host communities.  More than 5,600 people were killed in 2024 alone. Between October 2024 and June 2025, another 4,864 people were killed.

The graph at right shows how the prevalence of child malnutrition has increased over recent years.

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) reports that 75% of households cannot afford health services, and nearly 50% of the population survives on less than $3 a day.

In this 2026 cycle, UNICEF has targeted over 129,000 children (aged 6–59 months) for treatment of Severe Acute Malnutrition.  UNICEF’s estimate of the increase in the number of cases of severe malnutrition is shown in the graph below.

Aid agencies have been continuously trying to provide life-saving assistance.  NGOs such as CARE, Catholic Relief Services and World Vision have led large consortia to promote nutrition in Haiti for decades, though the ability of outside agencies to operate has become constrained.  Today, agencies responding include:

  • -Action Against Hunger US is involved in Haiti. They support populations affected by violence and displacement, delivering critical food assistance and cash support in the Nord-Ouest region. In Nord-Est and Sud, their focus is on preventing malnutrition through targeted interventions. In Port-au-Prince, they provide vocational training, treat children suffering from malnutrition, and offer primary healthcare services to over 30,000 people.
  • -Catholic Relief Services (CRS) provides food assistance.
  • -CARE provides food to displaced populations.
  • -Compassion International provides food and voucher support through 365 church partners, helping children and caregivers.
  • -GOAL is providing cash for food security.
  • -Malteser International supports food security and nutrition, working with community health centers to identify and support malnourished children, pregnant women, and breastfeeding mothers.
  • -Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF/Doctors Without Borders) provides mobile and maternity clinics.
  • -Partners In Health (PIH/Zanmi Lasante): PIH deploys mobile food clinics staffed with medical professionals and community health workers to sites in the Artibonite region. They seek to identify malnourished children early so treatment can be delivered before health problems become fatal
  • -World Vision. World Vision is active in Haiti with child-focused hunger work, including school meals and other food support. Recent World Vision materials also describe food packages and support tied to the hunger crisis in Haiti.
  • -Meds & Food for Kids (MFK). This is a particularly important nutrition-focused Haiti organization. MFK produces therapeutic and supplemental foods in Haiti and works with Haitian clinics to treat malnourished infants and toddlers; it also runs school-feeding support with Vita Mamba

Hunger Increases Even Further in The Sudan

August 28, 2025:  Aid agencies estimate that malnutrition in Sudan increases in scale, depth and scope.  Much of the reporting comes from the far western region of Darfur, where, between January and May 2025, North Darfur saw a 46% increase in children admitted for SAM treatment at health centers compared to the same period in 2024 — with over 40,000 children treated in just that region.

As a result of 2 1/2 years of civil war, over 14 million Sudanese have been displaced by violence, both internally and across borders.  In the largest camp for displaced persons, Zamzam in North Darfur,  Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported devastating malnutrition rates — as high as 29–30% acute malnutrition, and high mortality (e.g., one child dying every two hours.  Similarly,  Save the Children reported a nearly fourfold increase in severe acute malnutrition cases seen in one South Kordofan clinic from June 2023 to June 2024, with 1,457 children admitted in June 2024 alone.

Though access by international organizations to children in this large, rural country is limited, UNICEF estimates that some 3.2 million children under 5 may have  acute malnutrition in 2025, including about 770,000 experiencing Severe Acute Malnutrition, meaning they are extremely wasted.

The U.N.’s advisory body about famine, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reported 25.6 million people in the Sudan are food insecure, and of those, 8.5 million are in Emergency (Famine degree Phase 4) and another 755,000 are in Catastrophe/Famine (Famine degree Phase 5).

Humanitarian access is greatly constrained, with persistent fighting preventing deliveries of food or supplies into many areas, notably in Darfur, Khartoum, and regions with large numbers of internally displaced person.

Concern Worldwide is supporting 81 health facilities across Sudan, particularly in West and Central Darfur, treating children under five for acute malnutrition, with a focus on delivering ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF).  Despite the destruction of Sudan’s only RUTF factory in 2023, Concern has secured and delivered 10 metric tons of RUTF to vulnerable communities. In 2024, they reached nearly 484,000 people with lifesaving health and nutrition support.

 

In Memoriam: The US Famine Early Warning System, Known as FEWS, as well as SERVIR

The program which many experts considered to be the most effective at stopping famines and starvation and arguably the single most valuable aid program of all time, has ended its 40 year run of success, as the White House shut it down, alongside hundreds of other global initiatives, without review, discussion or debate.  The “Famine Early Warning System” aka “FEWS” was created to address the longstanding problem that U.S. food aid, which takes months to plan, procure and ship across oceans, kept arriving too late to save lives where there was famine.

FEWS has prevented the deaths of an estimated 10 million children from famine during its tenure.  FEWS played an important role in the decline in famine deaths seen in the last century.

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) created FEWS following the late famine relief efforts of the mid 1980s when famine hit Ethiopia, Sudan and the Sahel.  In those famines, US food aid saved many lives, but could have saved more, and prevented mass forced migration (the uprooting of refugees) if food aid had reached those in need at earlier stages of crisis.  The President of Tufts University (in Massachusetts), Dr. Jean Mayer, a nutritionist, proposed a new famine early warning initiative to the head of USAID at the time, and the new program was born.  In the decades since, US food aid became dramatically more effective at addressing emergency food needs in a timely way, in the process saving millions of lives.

From its inception, FEWS cleverly combined data from a range of different sources about local crop production in countries from Somalia to Mali, from Afghanistan to Haiti.  FEWS obtained and compared data from satellite imagery of fields under cultivation, ground visitations, rainfall, local retail prices, surveys of malnutrition, and distress sales by households (an early indicator of intention to migrate).  Its methods elegantly blended insights from markets, biology, climate, and remote sensing.  FEWS brought together contributions from other parts of the government:  including NASA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.  Various universities including the University of California/Santa Barbara and the University of Maryland also provided critical satellite monitoring and analysis, all under USAID management, backed by networks of field analysts and scientists.  The first American group leading FEWS was Tulane University School of Tropical Medicine.

Graduate courses in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) taught about FEWS as a case study of a successful application of layering information in multi-colored maps to target food aid where it was needed most.  Courses in schools of public health taught about FEWS as well.  Humanitarian aid became a science.

USAID renamed the program “FEWS NET” and funded it to avoid appearance of conflict of interest to inflate food needs through funding appeals.  The cost of FEWS NET has been a small fraction of the value of the humanitarian food aid that USAID distributes. As FEWS matured and became a global network, FEWS NET, it provided ongoing, real-time reporting about a several dozen countries spanning continents and became a mainstay of USAID, being renewed continuously.  FEWS provided guidance not only to US food aid, but food from other donor countries including Canada, Japan, Europe and Australia.  To emphasize this collaboration with other contributing nations, in 2000, the initiative was renamed to Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to emphasize the importance of collaboration with international and local information systems.

FEWS NET integrated varied data to build the most-likely scenarios to project food insecurity conditions in designated countries four and eight months in advance, indicating where timely humanitarian food aid might save lives and livelihoods.  FEWS NET’s analysis have answered the who, what, where, when and why. FEWS NET also reviews livestock conditions, markets and herder mobility (and fisheries, where important), along with crop conditions.  In recent decades, conflict became the biggest driver of food insecurity due to broken market links, shrinking livelihood options, death or injury of main breadwinners, and population displacement, leading to aid dependence.

No other public source has provided this kind of independent and globally consistent food insecurity intelligence.  FEWS NET briefings to all branches of the US Government, UN and NGO community are well respected and eagerly sought.  FEWS NET also reviewed livestock conditions, markets and herder mobility (and fisheries, where important), along with crop conditions.  In recent decades, conflict became the biggest driver of food insecurity due to broken market links, shrinking livelihood options, death or injury of main breadwinners, and population displacement, leading to aid dependence.

Famines will continue to occur, but prevention and early mitigation and response will be hampered now in the absence of FEWS.

In addition to the termination of FEWS, the USG also terminated other early warning projects, such as SERVIR.  The SERVIR program was a joint initiative of NASA and USAID that leveraged satellite-based Earth observation data to support climate resilience, disaster preparedness, and prevention in poorer countries. Established in 2005, SERVIR’s mission is to “connect space to village,” making NASA’s Earth data accessible for locally-driven environmental and development solutions. SERVIR tracked food security, water resources, weather, land use, and natural hazards.  SERVIR partnered with regional organizations in Amazonia, Eastern and Southern Africa, Hindu Kush Himalaya, Mekong, West Africa, and Central America.

Other sources about the demise of FEWS:   New Humanitarian about Data Streams;  and National Public Radio’s piece.

About Servir, see:     https://nasawatch.com/trumpspace/usaid-erasure-impact-nasa-halts-servir-solicitations/ https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20210022715/downloads/Anderson2021_Getting-ahead-of-disaster-impacts-EO-CB_20211015.pdf

HUNGER HOTSPOTS ACROSS THE GLOBE

This is a view of the most urgent hunger hotspots around the world. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) used by the United Nations and International Aid Agencies consists of five levels of severity for food insecurity as follows:
1. Minimal – Acceptable
2. Stressed – Alert
3. Crisis – Serious
4. Emergency – Critical
5. Catastrophe – Famine

https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/ipc-overview-and-classification-system/en/

For the following countries, the operative factor was the prevalence (current rate among children) of Acute Malnutrition (also known as wasting) from 2021 assessments.

AFGHANISTAN
Fourteen (14) million people in Afghanistan are facing acute food insecurity, and an estimated 3.2 million children under the age of five expected to suffer from acute malnutrition by the end of the year. At least 1 million of these children are at risk of dying due to severe acute malnutrition without immediate treatment.
A November 2021 UN survey mission  to Kandahar Province to assess the current capacity and needs found increases in number of cases of Severe Acute Malnutrition were also reported. (WFP)

ETHIOPIA
This severe crisis results from the combined effects of civil war, limited humanitarian access, loss of harvest and livelihoods, and collapsed markets.
In May 2021, it was reported that 5.5 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity and 3.1 million people were in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while 2.1 million people were in an Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

A food security analysis update conducted in Tigray and the neighboring zones of Amhara and Afar concludes that over 350,000 people were in ‘catastrophe’, according to Integrated Phase Classification or IPC 5 (famine) levels between May and June 2021. Since November 2021, approximately 100,000 people have fled their homes in Tigray, including more than 48,000 who headed westwards and crossed the border into eastern Sudan. Thousands are at risk of hunger, and peace is vital to stop the situation in Tigray from worsening.

YEMEN
The food security situation in Yemen significantly deteriorated during 2020 and has reached crisis levels. Over 2.25 million children under five years old have suffered from acute malnutrition in 2021. The reasons include the ongoing civil conflict, very poor access to health services and poor sanitation in most areas.

SOMALIA
The key drivers of acute food insecurity in Somalia include the combined effects of poor rainfall, as well as flooding and war. Almost 3.5 million people across Somalia faced food gaps or loss of livelihood assets indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the end of the year. Moreover, it is estimated 1.2 million children under the age of five are likely to be acutely malnourished, including nearly 213,400 who are likely to be severely malnourished. Desert Locust will continue to pose a serious risk to both pasture availability and crop production across Somalia.

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
During a Food Insecurity analysis of Central African Republic conducted in September 2021, 67 of the country’s 71 sub-prefectures were assessed The Assessment projected that from the period of September 2021 to March 2022, nine sub-prefectures are to be classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 59 in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Of the 4.9 million people living in these sub-prefectures, 2.1 million (43%) will experience high levels of acute food insecurity through March 2022, including around 620,000 people in Emergency levels (IPC Phase 4).

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO (DRC)
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is experiencing one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. More than five million people have been displaced, including three million children. Most of these displaced families have sheltered in local communities that are only just managing to meet their own needs. Other displaced persons live in informal camps where living conditions are even harsher.

According to the latest Acute Malnutrition analysis, nearly 900,000 children under five and more than 400,000 pregnant or lactating women are likely to be acutely malnourished through August 2022 in the 70 health zones assessed out of a total of 519 health zones. These estimates include more than 200,000 severely malnourished children requiring urgent care.

KENYA
An estimated 653,000 children and 96,500 pregnant and lactating women require treatment for acute malnutrition. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic that is affecting all counties in the country, the caseload among children aged 6 to 59 months requires urgent attention. The nutrition situation has remained similar across arid counties compared to the August 2020 analysis.

ANGOLA
An analysis of Acute Malnutrition in 10 municipalities in Southern Angola has revealed that around 114,000 children under the age of five are suffering or are likely to suffer from acute malnutrition in the next 12 months and therefore require treatment

MADAGASCAR
Over 500,000 children under the age of five are expected to be acutely malnourished through April 2022, of which over 110,000 are likely severely malnourished and require urgent life-saving treatment. Food insecurity is a major contributing factor to the nutrition situation, followed by poor access to sanitation facilities and improved drinking water sources due to drought.

Conditions are likely to continue deteriorating in the coming months. Nearly 1.6 million people—approximately 60 percent of southern Madagascar’s population—will likely require humanitarian assistance from June 2021 to May 2022.

CHAD
Over 500,000 children under the age of five are expected to be acutely malnourished through April 2022, of which over 110,000 are likely  to be severely malnourished and require urgent life-saving treatment. Food insecurity is a major contributing factor to the nutrition situation, followed by poor access to sanitation facilities and improved drinking water sources due to drought.