February 28, 2026 The U.S.–Iran war that began today, 28 February 2026, threatens to sharply worsen malnutrition among children under five in low-income urban neighborhoods of strike zones (Tehran, Isfahan, Kermanshah) and in rural border provinces (e.g., Sistan-Baluchestan and Kurdistan) that already experience high malnutrition rates.
Iran, with a total population of 93 million people, has 7 ½ million children under five years of age, which is more children than Germany, the UK, Canada, Iraq, Syria, Italy, Turkey, or France.
Over the last few decades the occurrence of childhood stunting (a form of long-term malnutrition) and of wasting (short-term) malnutrition have declined in Iran, reflected by the government’s attention to treating malnutrition. However, studies in southern Iran from 2018 to 2023 show a significant increase in underweight and wasting among young children, with the annual % change of severe wasting increasing by 8.9%. Nationally, the rate of wasting has averaged 4.2%, which is medium for regional and peer countries. Iran’s Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MoHME) manages child malnutrition programs through primary healthcare centers, hospitals, and nutrition initiatives. Treatment follows protocols similar to WHO/UNICEF guidelines for community-based management of acute malnutrition, which emphasize outpatient therapeutic care using Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF) for severe malnutrition.
The most widespread micronutrient deficiency diseases in Iran include vitamin D (rickets), iron (anemia), vitamin A, and zinc deficiency. Iran addresses these through national programs (e.g., supplementation, fortification of foods like flour with iron/folate, salt iodization, and targeted UNICEF-supported interventions in high-risk provinces), but challenges persist due to economic factors, dietary habits, and regional disparities.
Even before the current war threats, Iran’s food economy was struggling under the weight of international sanctions and mismanagement. The conflict will further reduce Iranian families’ ability to afford food. In fact, the protests that broke out in December 2025 were in part over increased food prices after the rial plunged against the U.S. dollar. There has been criticism by Iranians that their government has failed to present a clear emergency response plan, leaving citizens to fend for themselves. 
Iran produces much of its own wheat, dates, barley, rice, pistachios, walnuts, citrus fruits, and saffron. It imports rice, cooking oils, soybeans, sugar, tea, and dairy. The fighting will disrupt Iran’s ability to import food commodities, tightening supply. Agricultural supply chains, transportation networks, storage facilities, and water infrastructure are all vulnerable. Damaged roads and ports will impede food distribution across the country.
Urban bombardment now underway in Tehran and other major cities will displace families. Reuters today reports that Iranians have fled cities in search of safety, rushed to stock up on food, and formed long queues at fuel stations as attacks by the United States and Israel spread fear and panic throughout the country. Iranian government messages have explicitly encouraged people to leave Tehran and other targeted cities to avoid attacks. This kind of internal displacement typically leads to overcrowded towns, strain on services, and informal settlements on the periphery of safer cities.
Internally displaced populations lose access to stable food sources, income, and caregiving routines. Young children are disproportionately harmed by the disruption of feeding practices and by unhygienic displacement conditions that compound malnutrition with infectious disease.
Iran is known as a country that takes care of refugees. Estimates vary, but UNHCR and other agencies report roughly some 3.8 million refugees and people in refugee-like situations in Iran as of 2025, overwhelmingly from Afghanistan and a smaller number from Iraq and other countries.
Iran has been prone to disasters due to large earthquakes and famines. As well, in February 1972, a week-long series of storms brought up to 26 feet (8 meters) of snow in rural areas of western Iran which buried over 200 villages, killing thousands.
Iran also suffered severe famines in 1870-72 and during the First and Second World Wars. The most recent UN Food and Agriculture Organization report about Iran (November 2025) notes that persistent dry weather has hampered winter wheat plantings, leading to an estimated cereal production nearly 10% below the five-year average in 2025. It found that wheat prices in Tehran had risen 50% and rice prices had tripled, compared to the previous year.
Iran has a fairly extensive domestic social protection system by regional standards, though it has faced significant strains in recent years. The Imam Khomeini Relief Committee (IKRC) is one of the largest non-governmental charitable organizations in the world by some measures. It operates under government supervision and provides cash transfers, food assistance, healthcare subsidies, and vocational training to millions of low-income Iranians. It draws on religious endowments (waqf) and public donations alongside state funding. The State Welfare Organization (SWO) handles a broader range of social services including disability support, elderly care, and assistance for vulnerable families.
International aid agencies help Iran in disasters, including the Red Cross. The national Red Crescent society of Iran, part of the global IFRC network, has deep roots in domestic disaster relief, rescue, and healthcare operations. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has been working in Iran since the late 1970s. The ICRC provides humanitarian services related to conflict-affected populations, health, and protection.
Médecins Sans Frontières (also known as Doctors without Borders) has been operating health programs in Iran. Many other international NGOs have been hesitant to work in Iran, where the government distrusts Western organizations. An exception has been Relief International (RI), which was founded in 1990 following the catastrophic Manjil–Rudbar earthquake in northern Iran.
The convergence of active conflict, pre-existing economic strain, and disrupted supply chains creates a compounding crisis for Iran’s most vulnerable — particularly children under five. International humanitarian organizations face their own obstacles operating in Iran, given longstanding government suspicion of Western NGOs. The children most at risk — those in strike zones like Tehran and Isfahan, and those in already-malnourished border provinces like Sistan-Baluchestan — are precisely the populations least able to weather further disruption to food access, clean water, and caregiving. Without rapid and coordinated humanitarian response, the malnutrition crisis that predates this conflict will deepen sharply, with consequences that will outlast the fighting itself.
S. Hansch, WHES Board
King utilizes several historical and contemporary disasters to illustrate the “Intelligence-Policy Gap.”
