Tag: World Economic Forum

Reuters Analyzes Global Vulnerability to Fertilizer Prices & Hunger

July 10, 2026     Reuters news service posted a new infographic-rich analysis of how the world became dependent on fertilizer trade and the risks of Middle East conflict to world hunger at:  https://www.reuters.com/graphics/IRAN-WAR/FERTILIZER/zjvqgwgakvx/

“The Iran War threatened a food crisis.  The next Gulf conflict could do the same:  Modern farming depends on cheap fertilizer. The war made fertilizer more expensive, with ships trapped, fertilizer plants shut down, farmers panicking and world food production thrown into peril”  By , ,  and .

The authors cite Vaclav Smil about how the world’s food production seen enormous gains in food production over a relatively short period of history, thanks to the processing of nitrogen into ammonia and then urea to fertilize croplands. (see Hunger Notes review of Smil’s book about global food).  Reuters traces the history of trade and the chemical processes for generating fertilizer.

Reuter’s analysis explains why India, Africa, Brazil and other countries were the most vulnerable to this year’s sharp increases in fertilizer pricing.  Reuters agrees with the Financial Times, as well as Hunger Notes articles that came immediately after the war in the Middle East began, and after seeing the price changes.    Other analysts have pointed out that 35% of global crude oil exports, 20% of LNG exports, 20-30% of global fertilizer exports, and about 50% of global sulfur exports transit the strait of Hormuz, pictured above. Nitrogen fertilizer is more exposed as Gulf countries are major producers of nitrogen fertilizers, which depend on natural gas burned at high pressure to synthesize ammonia.  Fertilizer producers in other countries also lack key feedstock inputs from the Middle East.

In terms of increases in malnutrition, the World Economic Forum describes this as a staged shock: it begins with energy-price spikes and logistics disruptions, moves to fertilizer shortages, then lower yields, with delayed transmission eventually producing higher food prices and market volatility months later.  Cereal producers could face income losses of up to 5% in 2026, with effects lasting through 2030.

The Reuters analysis concludes that “The Iran war supply shock and the El Nino weather pattern could keep prices high for some time to come, a strain for vulnerable populations struggling to meet their daily needs.”

Fertilizer Prices and Hunger Increase from Middle East War

March 20, 2026      Malnutrition rates are likely to increase worldwide due to fertilizers becoming less available.  The primary driver for  significant increases in fertilizer prices is the disruption of nitrogen and phosphate production from the current war in the Middle East.

The Middle East is a critical hub, accounting for roughly 10-50% of the world’s urea production and nearly half of the global tradable supply of sulfur (an essential input for phosphate). Furthermore, record-high natural gas prices in early 2026 have pushed the variable costs of ammonia production significantly higher.  Fertilizer prices were already rising in early 2026, while major upside risks include conflict-related shipping disruption, tighter nitrogen and phosphate exports, and natural-gas uncertainty.  The WorldBank reported that fertilizer prices gained 6.5% in February 2026.  Other groups, such as the FAO, Argus, and CRU have each flagged conflict-related risks to fertilizer and energy flows, especially through the Middle East and shipping routes.

The two charts shown, that are modeled on current trends suggest that key fertilizer prices may double in the coming 6 months.

The critical chokepoint has been the Strait of Hormuz. Following the war in late February 2026, the Hormuz waterway, which is responsible for a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade, has closed, sending urea prices at NOLA up roughly 30% in the first two weeks of March alone.  Shipping costs through the Red Sea have also risen more than 50%, further compressing margins across the supply chain.

The World Economic Forum adds:  “It’s not just shipping that’s been disrupted. Qatar was forced to halt production at one of the world’s biggest urea plants last week, in the midst of what is planting season in much of the world.  As of 2022, Qatar’s exports of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers including urea were keeping nearly 43 million people fed in the US, Brazil, and India alone.”

Sustained 40-to-60% price increases cause farmers, including  smallholders, to under-apply nutrients, which translates into yield losses 6–12 months downstream. That lag is what makes the current moment especially dangerous for food insecure populations heading into late 2026.  In other words, malnutrition is projected to increase after a lag time.  Malnutrition will be widespread and diffuse, not localized to one area.

 

S Hansch, WHES Board