Tag: fertilizer

“Coming Food Crisis” Predicted in Financial Times Essay

April 18, 2026          In a major Weekend Essay, Adam Hanieh, writing in the Financial Times British newspaper on April 17 2025, warns that the current Middle East conflict will cause a world food crisis.  Hunger and even famine are foreseeable consequences of the war on Iran. The world should act to shield the poorest from effects that will continue long after the fighting stops.

The contraction in exports from the Middle East is not just a short-term increase in price for agricutural inputs; it risks actual production shortfalls in upcoming harvests.  Rising energy prices always raise food prices.

Referring to how many countries have improved their food production over the last fifty years, the Financial Times essay explains how inter-connected today’s farms are with products from the Middle East, explaining how the the ‘Green Revolution’ of crop research established a link between food production & the fossil fuel industry across every stage of farming and “pushing back famine” across much of Asia and Latin America.   Since many of these fertilisers are derived from natural gas, the Green Revolution meant that the world’s food production became ever more closely tied to a constantly increasing supply of hydrocarbon inputs.

The author details how sulfur, urrea, and ammonia from the Middle East are key components of farm inputs in China, India, Brazil, Morocco, Indonesia, Australia, the United States and other countries.

This Financial Times piece also explains how trans-shipment hubs, such as Dubai have become important for humanitarian supply chains, which will hinder aid to countries like Somalia and Sudan.

The essay argues that this is a slow-moving yet systemic crisis as farmers plant less now, with resulting smaller harvests months ahead, leading to further increases in food prices later this year.  FT recognizes that poor countries will be hit harvest.  While wealthier countries will experience inflation, low income countries may face famine.

The original author of the FT essay, Adam Hanieh is the director of the SOAS Middle East Institute and professor of political economy.

Note:  This and other Financial Times articles are behind a paywall and not readily accessed absent a subscription.  The link to the article is:

https://www.ft.com/content/36343e24-b06f-434d-a7e5-6046e7bcf3df

 

Fertilizer Prices and Hunger Increase from Middle East War

Malnutrition rates are likely to increase worldwide due to fertilizers becoming less available.  The primary driver for  significant increases in fertilizer prices is the disruption of nitrogen and phosphate production from the current war in the Middle East.

The Middle East is a critical hub, accounting for roughly 10-50% of the world’s urea production and nearly half of the global tradable supply of sulfur (an essential input for phosphate). Furthermore, record-high natural gas prices in early 2026 have pushed the variable costs of ammonia production significantly higher.  Fertilizer prices were already rising in early 2026, while major upside risks include conflict-related shipping disruption, tighter nitrogen and phosphate exports, and natural-gas uncertainty.  The WorldBank reported that fertilizer prices gained 6.5% in February 2026.  Other groups, such as the FAO, Argus, and CRU have each flagged conflict-related risks to fertilizer and energy flows, especially through the Middle East and shipping routes.

The two charts shown, that are modeled on current trends suggest that key fertilizer prices may double in the coming 6 months.

The critical chokepoint has been the Strait of Hormuz. Following the war in late February 2026, the Hormuz waterway, which is responsible for a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade, has closed, sending urea prices at NOLA up roughly 30% in the first two weeks of March alone.  Shipping costs through the Red Sea have also risen more than 50%, further compressing margins across the supply chain.

The World Economic Forum adds:  “It’s not just shipping that’s been disrupted. Qatar was forced to halt production at one of the world’s biggest urea plants last week, in the midst of what is planting season in much of the world.  As of 2022, Qatar’s exports of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers including urea were keeping nearly 43 million people fed in the US, Brazil, and India alone.”

Sustained 40-to-60% price increases cause farmers, including  smallholders, to under-apply nutrients, which translates into yield losses 6–12 months downstream. That lag is what makes the current moment especially dangerous for food insecure populations heading into late 2026.  In other words, malnutrition is projected to increase after a lag time.  Malnutrition will be widespread and diffuse, not localized to one area.