“Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing. Global temperatures keep rising. And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.”

— António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations

Understanding Climate Change and Hunger: Hunger Notes Basics, is available to download. The comprehensive fact sheet includes definitions of key climate change vocabulary and bonus content.

Climate Change and Hunger: An In-Depth Analysis of Trends and Impacts

Climate change is not just a distant threat; it is a present reality that fuels global hunger.

This climate crisis is sweeping across the globe, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable people, damaging food systems, displacing entire nations, multiplying hunger drivers, and depleting resources vital to survival.

We have the knowledge, tools, and potential to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. However, unless the global community reduces behaviors that cause rising temperatures and scales up adaptive strategies—especially in the most vulnerable countries—climate change will continue to make the world more dangerous, increasing extreme hunger and threatening lives.

Abdullahi’s Story

For some, the battle for survival has already been lost.

Humanitarian Tjada D’Oyen McKenna drew attention to the cruelest consequence of climate change in a 2023 BoF presentation: the death of a child.

McKenna, the CEO of  Mercy Corps, was visiting a refugee camp on the outskirts of Baidoa in Somalia when she met a grandmother who had walked 14 days with her family in search of food and water. The family was escaping one of the worst droughts to hit the area in 40 years.

The grandmother told McKenna about her grandchildren and how she was especially bonded to Abdullahi, a sweet, polite 6-year-old but that he had not survived the journey.

Abdullahi, like many children who are climate refugees, died of starvation and was buried on the side of the road. 

“Sadly,” said McKenna, “that was not the only story I heard like that.”

Increasing extremes

The drought that drove Abdullahi’s family from their home and caused his death is part of a tapestry of extreme weather patterns that are occurring with greater frequency and intensity amid a warming planet. Every decade since 1850 has been warmer than the one before, and the last four have been the warmest on record.

What is climate change?

Climate change is the shift in weather patterns and temperatures primarily caused by human behavior such as burning fossil fuels and chopping down forests. These activities cause greenhouse gas emissions which trap heat in the atmosphere. The trapped heat leads to warmer temperatures, rising sea levels, and a variety of environmental impacts, including droughts, floods, wildfires, heatwaves, and other climate-driven disasters.

How does climate change impact hunger?

The unpredictable and extreme weather events caused by rising temperatures reduce crop yields and food quality, disrupting local and global food systems. This leads to scarcity, which increases food costs.

If there are already factors driving hunger in a region, such as conflict, poor governance, or poverty, climate-driven disasters will amplify their impact—this is called the multiplying effect of climate change.

How does climate change impact conflict?

An estimated 70 percent of the world’s hungry live in conflict zones, where land destruction and scarcity of natural resources amplify violence.

Conflict-prone countries are economically and politically fragile and the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Among the top three, Somalia and Niger are embroiled in civil conflict, while Chad is being pushed towards collapse by the refugee crisis, driven by the war in Sudan. Each of these countries is also ranked among the hungriest.

As the impacts of climate change increase, researchers warn that conflicts will grow.

Case study: Syria

Syria offers a case study of how climate and conflict intersect, creating widespread hunger.

Large-scale protests in 2011—part of the Arab Spring—ignited the civil war in Syria. Prior to the protests, a 2007-2010 drought caused crop failure and a sharp rise in food prices. An estimated 1.5 million people moved from farms and rural areas to the cities.

The drought alone was not enough to cause political unrest. The government also promoted unstable agricultural and environmental policies at the time. Poor governance, unemployment, and growing inequality were part of the equation that ignited conflict.

Hunger rates tripled in the aftermath of the war, making the country one of the most food-insecure in the world. Healthcare has collapsed, water is unsafe, and millions depend on emergency food assistance.

Case study: the United States

While Syria’s experience illustrates the devastating combination of climate change and conflict, the United States demonstrates how robust safety nets and adaptive strategies can mitigate the impacts of climate-related events.

In 2023, which saw a record number of climate-related events in the U.S., the worst impacts of a widespread drought were lessened by an established safety net.

Crop insurance protected farmers who lost crops and livestock. Government food assistance programs—like SNAP and school lunch programs—were in place to absorb price shocks for the most vulnerable Americans, alleviating widespread hunger.

In addition to a safety net structure, the U.S. also prepares for climate impacts. 

Adaptation—adjusting to the current and expected impacts of climate change—is at the forefront of U.S. climate policy.  Water management policies and early warning systems that account for changing weather patterns ensure the government can respond to disasters when they occur and reduce future risks.

Who does climate change impact?

People in the least developed countries have 10 times more chance of being affected by a climate disaster than those in wealthy countries each year. Marked by poverty and poor governance, most developing countries have neither safety nets to help people weather economic shocks nor do they invest in adaptive strategies to build resilience against future disasters.

People, who did the least to contribute to climate change, are feeling the worst effects, especially women and children.

Smallholder farmers, who produce about a third of the world’s food, are also disproportionately impacted by climate change. Generally poorer, they have limited resources to adapt to the increased frequency of severe and unpredictable weather.

How does climate change impact nutrition and health?

Climate change affects human health by diminishing the nutritional quality of plants. Rising Co2 levels in the atmosphere reduce micronutrients in staple foods like rice and wheat. As a result, the nutritional quality of these crops decreases, which can lead to deficiencies in populations that rely heavily on these staples for their diet.

When children don’t get enough micronutrients, like zinc and iron, they are more likely to be stunted—too short for their age—and suffer life-long consequences. Soil depletion is expected to put 130 million people at higher risk of zinc deficiency by 2050.

Climate change impacts health in other ways, too. 

In fragile countries with weak healthcare systems, climate change acts as a multiplier. Not only do natural disasters cause more deaths, but disease spreads quickly.. Water scarcity increases diseases like cholera and typhoid.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that between 2030 and 2050, climate change will cause an additional 250,000 deaths per year from hunger, disease, and heat stress.

How is climate change causing migration?

For people who are already living in poverty and spend most of their budget on food, when crops fail and food prices increase, they are left with impossible choices.

Abdullahi’s story highlights the severe personal impact of climate change on families and communities. His family’s desperate journey in search of food and water illustrates the broader issue of climate-induced migration—a crisis affecting millions of people worldwide. 

Across the globe, climate change is increasingly becoming a primary driver of migration. Between 2008 and 2016, 21.5 million people were displaced each year because of climate-related events. That number is expected to grow to 1.2 billion by 2050.

Global perspective

Climate change affects everyone, even in wealthy countries that are adopting adaptive strategies.

The U.S. Defense Department lists global warming as one of the greatest threats to safety and considers it a destabilizing force in the world. Mass migration, increased conflict, and competition for natural resources make the world less safe.

“Today, no nation can find lasting security without addressing the climate crisis,” said Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III in a 2021 address.

Today’s global food system is complex and vital to every nation. The war in Ukraine showed us how easily disruptions cause food and energy costs to soar, driving hunger in poorer countries.

With every degree of temperature increase, the destructive impacts of climate change grow, including global hunger. According to the World Food Programme, a 2°C rise in temperature from levels before large-scale industrial activities began, could result in 189 million more people experiencing hunger and 4°C would put 1.8 billion more people at risk.

Global response

In 2015, world leaders met in Paris and agreed to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C by cutting down pollution and reducing emissions. The world is off track to achieve this goal.

At the 2023 global conference in Dubai, leaders failed to agree to terms that would put limits on fossil fuels and bring the world closer to this target. However, a pledge of $400 million was made to help vulnerable countries deal with climate disasters—an amount that is helpful but not nearly enough.

Despite challenges at the global policy level, there are ongoing efforts to build climate resilience on the ground.

Robust safety nets, early warning systems, climate-resistant agricultural practices, and the strengthening of water infrastructure and government institutions are all adaptive strategies necessary to build resilience in the face of extreme weather and rising temperatures.

Successful adaptation means combining a number of these tactics through a region-specific, holistic approach.

Earlier in the paper, we saw how climate-smart water techniques were helping smallholder farmers build resilience in Guatemala. New irrigation options are vital, but not enough on their own.

More farmers and the organizations like Catholic Relief Services that help them are turning to drought-resistant seeds. Some bean varieties need less water than others to flourish.

Not only are the beans drought-resistant, but some are also biofortified, which means they are iron-rich—a micronutrient vital for the health of child-bearing women and the health of growing children. In a poor country where nearly half of children are too short for their age because of malnourishment, programs like these are building climate resilience and addressing malnutrition at the same time.

Conclusion

At the beginning of this paper, we illustrated the worst consequence of climate change: the death of a child. This stark example underscores the urgent need for action. We have the knowledge and tools to save lives like Abdullahi’s.

To mitigate the impacts of climate change, we must scale up efforts globally and locally, implement robust adaptation strategies, and reduce global emissions. The stakes are high—global stability, prosperity, and the future of human existence depend on our collective and decisive action. Together, we can confront this challenge and build a resilient, sustainable future for all.

Download and read the climate change and hunger fact sheet for bonus material and definitions, then take the climate change and hunger quiz!