On the eve of war with Iraq: humanitarian updates

Humanitarian Times

(March 15 2003) -  BRITISH MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AID SAID SHE WILL RESIGN
if British forces invade Iraq without express U.N. permission.  Labor Party Minister Clare Short, who supervises DFID, the UK Government's aid agency and who had previously blocked funding of aid agencies attempting to pre-position aid and prepare for Iraq, said in a BBC radio interview this week that she refused to participate in violation of international humanitarian law. 

Among legal analysts there appears to be a split over whether a coalition invasion of Iraq would violate humanitarian law (which speaks to how war should be conducted, not whether war should be conducted), international law (which is unclear about the legal scope of UN resolutions,  17 of which already fault the Iraqi government), nor even the U.N. charter, which recognizes the right of countries to self defense.

- "VOICES FROM THE IRAQI STREET" BY INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP (2002)
reflects interviews with Iraqis and finds that "Iraqis at home appear genuinely uninterested in topics.. ..such as the makeup of a successor regime... The Iraqi regime's repression has devastated civil society and any autonomous ...political organization.  The result is a largely de-politicized and apathetic population."  It also highlights how hyper- inflation and sanctions eroded the income of salaried middle-class Iraqis.  In contrast, "during the 1990s, rural Iraqis witnessed relative material improvement because the state no longer compelled them to sell their crops at an artificially low price."
See:  www.intl-crisis-group.org/projects/showreport.cfm?reportid=837 

- NEW REPORT ON  "THE HUMAN COSTS OF WAR IN IRAQ"
released this week by the Center for Economic and Social Rights (March, 2003; New York), based on field assessments around Baghdad in Jan 2003, finds that "the Iraqi population is far more vulnerable to the shocks of war than it was in 1991, having been reduced after 12 years of
sanctions to a state of dependency on government and international aid. "Agencies are not prepared to respond to the humanitarian consequences of war."
Military attacks against electricity, transportation, tele-communications, and other necessities would cause immediate collapse of Iraq's water purification, sanitation, public health, and food distribution systems, leading to increased hunger, sickness, and death, especially among children.   Similar attacks in the 1991 war contributed to 47,000 excess child deaths within eight months."  More controversially, the team projects that "attempts to replace rather than supplement (existing) Iraqi public health, food distribution, and infrastructure will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis."  The team feels that the "secrecy of humanitarian preparations by the U.S. (Govt) and the UN is impeding efforts to  develop an effective emergency response capacity."  The authors conclude that "subordination of humanitarian to military goals undermines principles of humanitarian action, neutrality in particular, and risks exposing aid workers to military attack and civilian anger as happened in Afghanistan."
See:  www.cesr.org/iraq/docs/humancosts.pdf

- "A WISER PEACE:  AN ACTION STRATEGY FOR POST-CONFLICT IRAQ"
by F. Barton and B. Crocker (Jan 2003, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, DC), cites past experience in arguing  that "in order for post-conflict reconstruction efforts to be effective, preparations
must be well in train before the shooting starts."  The authors
point to Iraq's massive debt, which will hinder effective administration (and prohibit World Bank or IMF support) for a post-war Iraq, and thus recommend a debt restructuring conference and a review of past claims against Iraq.  Authors recommend recruiting a "rapidly deployable justice team.  See: www.csis.org/isp/wiserpeace.pdf 

- THE U.N. 51-Pg CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR IRAQ OUTLINES AGENCIES' ROLES,
can be downloaded from  www.casi.org.uk/info/undocs/iasc021220.pdf 

- "PROTECTING IRAQIS FROM A SECURITY VACUUM" (Intl Rescue Comm., 2003) argues that military coalition forces have insufficiently prepared for policing and protection needs in post-war Iraq.  "Moderate or emerging political and community leaders will remain vulnerable to radicals, hardliners and spoilers for some time.  The report proposes the rapid creation of a legal regime, as happened in East Timor, with clear
procedures governing arrest, detention, access to counsel, prison
conditions.  IRC has also been active in delivering aid in Iraq.  See:
http://intranet.theirc.org/docs/IRC_Iraq_discussion_paper_30_Jan_03.pdf

- "THE INTERNALLY DISPLACED PEOPLE OF IRAQ" (Brookings/SAIS Project) by J. Fawcett and V. Tanner, 2002, estimates 800,000 IDPs in Iraq's north and 300,000 in central and south Iraq, including dynamic movements of refugees into and out of Iran.  Most of the displacement results from intentional Iraqi govt persecution with "full-fledged deployment of infantry, armor...and village demolition crews."  The authors urge: 
"to prepare for the future, the international community should recast its role to perform more effectively in favor of the displaced.   It should focus on applying pressure, providing safeguards and acting as confidence-building observers, even referees, rather than insist on being the primary implementers of programs." For example, noting the agricultural potential in northern Iraq, the authors encourage "the re-establishment of legitimate trading relationships between northern growers and southern consumers" which employ many and provide "a practical  incentive to maintaining a unified Iraq."  See: http://www.brook.edu/fp/projects/IDP/articles/iraqreport.htm

- "COLLATERAL DAMAGE, HEALTH and ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS OF WAR
in Iraq" (by MEDACT, 2002) estimates that "even a best-case scenario of limited war" would kill 10,000 persons and recommends smarter sanctions in lieu of war. See: www.medact.org/tbx/pages/sub.cfm?id=556

- INTERNATIONAL RESCUE COMMITTEE  (NGO) TESTIFIED TO U.S. SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE
on Tuesday of this week about the poor degree of preparedness for humanitarian problems in Iraq.  IRC's Vice President S. Mitchell said "UN and U.S. sanctions have kept all but a handful of NGOs out of Iraq and the region licensing procedures are obstructive and must be suspended to facilitate unhindered access of international and American access into Iraq before, during and after any intervention."  Citing a lack of humanitarian aid funding, and no Congressional supplemental appropriation yet, Mitchell argued, "humanitarian funding must be de-linked from the political and military issues of war.. (and)  de-linking of the humanitarian plans from the war plans is required to save lives."

- U.S. INTENDS TO DEPLOY ANTI-PERSONNEL ("GATOR") LANDMINES IN IRAQ,
although the use of landmines is banned now by international law.  The Pentagon last week said it would air-drop mines as a tactic to deny Iraqi forces access to their own weapons.  Landmine advocates criticized this decision, observing that all such anti-personnel landmines endanger civilians as much as soldiers.

- HUMANITARIAN AID PROFESSIONALS CALCULATE RISKS OF DEATH
and disease in an Iraq war to largely derive from water-supply shortfalls and increases in water-borne and water-washed infections, plus physical trauma from bombing, which Iraqi medical staff are poorly trained to handle.

- CARE international OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING AN IRAQI WAR,
building on its ongoing work inside Iraq since 1991, largely maintaining water systems for medium-size towns.  CARE international has pre-positioned in Iraq 60 water bladders to truck filtered water from the Tigris River.  Expecting transport difficulties (gasoline shortages), CARE has issued its staff new bicycles. (from Atlanta JML Construction)

- MEDICINS SANS FRONTIERES WILL RE-START AID PROGRAMS INSIDE IRAQ
next week.  MSF (Doctors Without Borders) last ran relief programs in Iraq 10 years ago.

- LARGEST CROSS-BORDER PROTESTS IN WORLD HISTORY DEMONSTRATE
the organizing power of internet and electronic 'smart mobs,' leading the EU this week to push legislation criminalizing civil protest inthe form of e-mail bombardment, as happened in the U.S.

- AID AGENCIES INCREASINGLY WORRY ABOUT AID RESOURCES FOR AFRICA, ASIA,
and for other areas of current crisis, observing that the very high levels of aid that would Iraq would sap aid available for dozens of existing crises in countries like Ethiopia, Liberia, Zimbabwe and North Korea. However, sometimes highly-visible crises lead to large, but brief, increases in overall aid donations.

- CONTROVERSIAL USG VISION OF WHO WOULD GOVERN IRAQ FOCUSES ON ARMY:
Its plan for post-war Iraq posits overall control with the Pentagon, with governance by 2 retired lieutenant generals (including General Jay Garner who led humanitarian aid efforts in northern Iraq in 1991), plus an ambassador.  The US military intends to deploy 100,000 forces inside Iraq for approximately 2 years.  According to March 10 TIME Magazine, "White House officials privately admit the plan is to take over Iraq, plain and simple...a full-fledged occupation by US forces would run the country until...given back to the Iraqis."

- "ROUNDTABLE ON HUMANITARIAN ACTION IN IRAQ" (Feb 3, Georgetown University, Washington, DC) details current estimates of health, food, shelter and protection needs in Iraq, explains NGO frustrations with license prohibitions from access to Iraq and summarizes difficulties aid agencies have had in communicating with the military.  Summary can be downloaded from website of Georgetown's Institute for the Study of international Migration:
www.georgetown.edu/sfs/programs/isim/IraqRoundtableSummary.pdf 
 

- LESSONS FROM 1991 IRAQ CRISIS, ABOUT PROTECTION OF MINORITIES,
written by the late Fred Cuny, can be found on the Cuny Center's website at:  www.thecunycenter.org/publications.html 

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