New U.S. Study Projects Hunger Gaps

Steve Hansch

In addition to the FAO studies of global food and hunger trends (see the Hunger Notes article Trends and Current Status of Malnutrition, the U.S. Government has also re-joined the debate about whether world hunger is getting better or worse.  A recent report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Food Security, questions the likelihood of the World Food Summit goal of halving the world's hungry people by 2015, estimating that the actual reduction has been and will be less than half that needed to reach the goal.

In anticipation of the summer 2002 World Food Summit in Rome, economic staff at the USDA wrote the recent "Food Security Assessment" (GFA-13) about hunger in 67 of the lowest-income countries. It continues the food assessments conducted in the 1970s and from 1990 to 1992.

Taking into account a range of economic indices, and projecting forward the "food gap" in developing countries, the authors forecast an average 1.6 percent decrease each year  in the number of hungry people.

The authors conclude that food security deteriorated between 2000 and 2001, largely due to a drop in food production which itself followed from economic contractions.  A more fundamental reason for food insecurity is poverty. According to the USDA estimates, consumption levels in 51 of the 67 countries for 20 percent or more of the population are below nutritional requirements, due to the low incomes of this part of the population. The situation for the poorest people in the other 16 countries is also dire.  

Photo: M. Marzot/FAO

Women drawing water from a well in Ethiopia. Drough and inadequate water suppy in most of Africa continues to be a major problem for poor people.

The report shows how the biggest effect of food aid is not in addressing overall food shortages, but in creating access to food among the poor.  Food supply alone is not the main problem in many areas:  "most of the food aid was given to countries such as India, Bangladesh, Ecuador, Guatemala, Georgia and Azerbaijan, that did not need any food aid at the average national level, according to our estimate."  US food aid in the year 2000 had its main benefit  by improving food access, addressing the problem of the distribution gap.

The authors conclude that food aid, at present levels, can only address a small fraction of the overall hunger problem.  "While food aid can play a useful role in the fight against hunger, its contribution is limited and cannot be the sole remedy to the hunger problem."  The authors point to food safety net programs as effective efforts that some governments, like China.  "Integrating international and national resources in designing safety net programs can be very effective instruments for mitigating the effects of shocks and can in this way serve as adjuncts to longer-term food security strategies.

In the long run, economic and income growth represents the most important basis for reduction of hunger, as the authors show in Bangladesh and India where the lowest income groups have achieved greater purchasing power.  "Today, only the bottom income quintile in Bangladesh fails to meet their nutritional requirements, compared with the bottom two quintiles in 1995. ... In India, food supplies have continued to increase.  The country has become a significant grain exporter while food stocks are at record levels."

The authors review the particular case of many countries.  When looking specifically at Afghanistan, they find that the crisis there will continues to lead to a large food shortfall, roughly 3 million metric tons this year.  "The situation is projected to remain acute over the next decade, requiring perhaps as much as 3.3 million tons annually to meet nutritional needs."

  Steve Hansch is the editor of the Humanitarian Times and an editor of Hunger Notes

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