(April 3, 2004) By 2007, more people will be living in cities than in rural areas, marking a historic demographic shift, according to a United Nations (U.N.) Population Division report released yesterday.

World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision has found that while 48 percent of the global population lived in urban areas in 2003, this number is "expected to exceed the 50 percent mark by 2007," marking the first time in history urban residents will outnumber the rural population.

The report estimates that the world's urban population will rise from 3 billion in 2003 to 5 billion by 2030.  The rural population will decline during that time, from 3.3 billion to 3.2 billion. 

The report predicts that over the next 11 years Tokyo will maintain its current position as the world's most populous city, increasing its population from 35 million in 2003 to 36 million in 2015.  Coming in second and third will be the Indian cities Mumbai, with 22.6 million, and New Delhi, at 20.9 million.  Mexico City with 20.6 million and Sao Paulo at 20 million are next on the list.

The U.N. Population Division simultaneously released the report World Population Policies 2003, which identified high mortality rates as the most significant concern in developing countries, while low fertility and declining population characterized developed countries.  The report said that over 90 percent of countries supported providing contraceptives and that developed and developing countries shared the desire to lower immigration.